Combatting Hybrid Threats

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In recent years, Europe has faced a surge in hybrid threats, with Russia employing a blend of conventional and unconventional tactics to destabilize the region. A notable example is the suspected sabotage of undersea cables, which are vital for communication and energy transmission.

Hybrid threats involve a combination of military and non-military tactics, including cyberattacks, disinformation campaigns, economic pressure, and sabotage. These methods aim to exploit vulnerabilities, create confusion, and achieve strategic objectives without engaging in open warfare. Russia has been a prominent practitioner of hybrid warfare, using these tactics to advance its geopolitical interests.

Undersea Cable Sabotage

Russia is suspected of orchestrating another major act of sabotage in Europe after two key fiber-optic data cables running below the Baltic Sea, the Wall Street Journal reported.

In May 2023, NATO intelligence warned that there is a “significant risk” Russian could target critical infrastructure in Europe or North America, including gas pipelines and internet cables, as part of its confrontation with the West over Ukraine.
In November 2024, two undersea fiber-optic cables in the Baltic Sea were severed within 48 hours, disrupting communications between Finland, Germany, Sweden, and Lithuania. The proximity and timing of these incidents led European officials to suspect sabotage, potentially as part of Russia’s hybrid warfare strategy. In 2024, the cable cuts have prompted investigations in Finland, Germany, Lithuania, and Sweden, with authorities in Berlin and Sweden stating that they suspect “sabotage.”

Finnish telecom operator Cinia reported on Monday that the “C-Lion1 submarine cable,” which links Helsinki to the German port of Rostock, was severed south of Öland Island in Swedish waters, approximately 700 kilometers (435 miles) from Helsinki.

Investigations revealed that a Chinese cargo ship, the Yi Peng 3, was in the vicinity during the incidents, raising questions about its involvement. Swedish authorities have requested China’s cooperation in the investigation, but the exact circumstances remain unclear. 

Russia’s Hybrid Warfare Tactics

Russia’s approach to hybrid warfare includes:

  • Cyberattacks: Targeting critical infrastructure to disrupt services and sow discord.
  • Disinformation Campaigns: Spreading false information to influence public opinion and political processes.
  • Economic Coercion: Using economic tools to exert pressure on other nations.
  • Sabotage: Conducting covert operations to damage infrastructure, as seen in the Baltic Sea cable incidents.

These tactics are designed to operate below the threshold of conventional war, making them challenging to detect and counter.

European Response and Countermeasures

In response to these threats, European nations and NATO have implemented several measures:

  • Enhanced Surveillance: Increasing monitoring of critical infrastructure, including undersea cables and pipelines.
  • Cyber Defense Initiatives: Developing advanced cybersecurity protocols to protect against cyberattacks.
  • Strategic Communication: Countering disinformation through coordinated public information campaigns.
  • International Cooperation: Collaborating with allies to share intelligence and coordinate responses to hybrid threats.

For instance, NATO has established a cell to coordinate efforts to protect undersea infrastructure, acknowledging the significant risk of Russian targeting. 

Challenges in Attribution and Response

Attributing hybrid attacks to a specific actor is complex, as these operations are designed to be deniable. This ambiguity complicates the decision-making process for responses, including the potential invocation of NATO’s Articlec 5, which considers an attack on one member as an attack on all. German intelligence has warned that continued Russian hybrid attacks could lead to such a scenario. 

Russia’s use of hybrid warfare, exemplified by the suspected sabotage of undersea cables, poses a significant challenge to European security. Addressing these threats requires a comprehensive approach that includes strengthening infrastructure resilience, enhancing cyber defenses, and fostering international cooperation. By understanding and countering hybrid tactics, Europe can better protect its critical infrastructure and maintain regional stability.

Combatting Hybrid Threats: Key Recommendations

According to Task Force’s report Hybrid Warfare, Disinformation, and the NATO Response, effectively addressing hybrid threats requires a robust strategy built around three core pillars: 1) Promoting Economic Independence, 2) Securing Cyberspace, and 3) Combating Disinformation. Based on insights from fifteen countries, the following seven actionable policy proposals are recommended:

  • Protect Critical Infrastructure: Establish EU-wide Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) screening mechanisms to safeguard sovereignty over critical infrastructure.
  • Secure Offshore Assets: Enhance the physical security of offshore wind farms and oil refineries through collaboration between NATO’s undersea rapid response forces and Nordic countries.
  • Upgrade Cyber Defence: Deploy next-generation early warning systems powered by AI and virtualization technology across NATO’s critical infrastructure.
  • Strengthen Private Sector Cybersecurity: Allocate funding via the NATO Security Investment Program to build cybersecurity capacity within critical private industries.
  • Set Cybersecurity Standards: Introduce mandatory cybersecurity standards for private IT providers working with public critical infrastructure, overseen by national-level Computer Emergency Response Teams (CERTs) or Computer Security Incident Response Teams (CSIRTs).
  • Enforce Security Audits: Require all IT service providers contracting with critical infrastructure operators to undergo mandatory security audits.
  • Educate Against Disinformation: Launch nationwide education programs to teach youth how to identify and resist disinformation, implemented by national governments.

By addressing these interconnected vulnerabilities, policymakers can enhance resilience against hybrid threats and strengthen national and regional security.

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