The Secret War on Iran: Decades of Sabotage, Sanctions, and Strikes

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For over four decades, the Islamic Republic of Iran has been under siege—not just through sanctions and speeches, but via a relentless, largely undeclared campaign of sabotage, cyberwarfare, assassinations, and airstrikes. Orchestrated primarily by Israel and the United States, this “secret war” has targeted Iran’s nuclear ambitions, military infrastructure, and top scientists with precision and patience.

From the Stuxnet virus that spun its centrifuges into chaos, to the brazen daylight killing of Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, and now full-scale strikes on hardened nuclear sites in 2025, the conflict has moved from shadows to spectacle. What is the machinery behind decades of covert confrontation? Does the latest escalation mark the end of restraint or the beginning of open war?

The 1979 Revolution and Iran’s New Adversaries

Iran’s Islamic Revolution in 1979 overthrew the US-backed Shah and ushered in a theocratic regime fiercely opposed to American and Israeli influence. Ayatollah Khomeini’s new Islamic Republic swiftly isolated Iran from the West, branding the United States the “Great Satan” and Israel a mortal enemy. Tehran cut ties with Israel, with whom the Shah had quietly cooperated, and began supporting anti-Israel militant groups like Hezbollah and Palestinian factions.

In response, Israel and its Western allies viewed the revolutionary regime with deep suspicion, especially as Tehran proclaimed its intent to export its Islamist ideology across the region. The seizure of the US Embassy in Tehran and the ensuing 444-day hostage crisis cemented Iran’s role as a pariah in Washington’s eyes. From that point forward, the Islamic Republic’s strategic aims often put it in direct conflict with the US and Israel, setting the stage for a shadow war that would span decades.

War, Embargo and Covert Clashes in the 1980s

Soon after the revolution, Iraq’s dictator Saddam Hussein invaded Iran in 1980, triggering an eight-year conflict that devastated Iran. The Iran–Iraq War (1980–1988) would indirectly draw in both the US and Israel. Washington tilted decisively toward Iraq, supplying Baghdad with intelligence and protection for oil shipments, while also imposing an arms embargo on Tehran. In one notorious incident in 1988, US naval forces in the Persian Gulf directly clashed with Iran – Operation Praying Mantis saw the US Navy sink Iranian warships and destroy oil platforms in Iran’s waters.

Later that year a US warship mistakenly shot down Iran Air Flight 655, killing 290 civilians, an episode still seared into Iran’s national memory. Israel, for its part, had an ambiguous role in the 1980s conflict: publicly it condemned Iran, but covertly Israel supplied some weapons to Tehran, as exposed in the Iran-Contra affair, to keep Iran fighting and prevent an Iraqi victory. By the war’s end, Iran emerged economically crippled and militarily weakened, harbouring a bitter distrust of the US – a sentiment reciprocated in Washington.

Iran’s Nuclear Ambitions and Western Opposition

Even as it fought Iraq, Iran quietly restarted the nuclear program that the Shah had begun. The post-revolution leadership insisted its nuclear ambitions were peaceful – aimed at energy and scientific advancement – but secrecy and purchases of illicit technology raised alarms abroad. In the 1990s and early 2000s, Western intelligence grew increasingly convinced Iran had a clandestine weapons program. Iranian dissidents exposed undeclared nuclear sites at Natanz and Arak in 2002, prompting inspections. From that point onward, Iran’s nuclear progress became a central flashpoint.

A series of negotiations and standoffs followed, as the EU and UN tried to rein in Tehran’s enrichment of uranium. Hardline Iranian rhetoric – including calls for Israel’s elimination by some officials – only deepened Israeli fears. Israel vowed it would never allow Iran to obtain nuclear arms, considering it an existential threat. The United States likewise warned that an Iranian bomb was “unacceptable,” and both countries began preparing not just diplomatic pressure but covert actions to cripple Iran’s nuclear capabilities.

Sanctions and Economic Warfare

One of the first fronts in the campaign against Iran was economic. After 1979, the US imposed sweeping sanctions – freezing Iranian assets and banning trade – which intensified over time. In the mid-1990s, Washington banned Iranian oil imports and penalized foreign companies investing in Iran’s energy sector. The pressure ratcheted up as Iran’s nuclear program advanced: multiple UN Security Council resolutions from 2006 onward placed sanctions on Iran’s nuclear and missile industries. By 2012, Iran’s oil exports and banking were severely constrained by US and European measures. These sanctions, described by Iran’s leaders as “economic terrorism,” battered Iran’s economy and were intended to coerce Tehran into curbing its nuclear work.

Iran eventually agreed to the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), accepting nuclear limits in exchange for sanctions relief. However, the deal was short-lived – in 2018 the Trump administration unilaterally quit the accord and reimposed “maximum pressure” sanctions, throttling Iran’s oil revenue and access to global finance. Tehran’s currency plummeted and inflation soared under the renewed embargo. Economic warfare has thus been a constant backdrop, softening Iran for the more kinetic attacks that would follow.

Shadow Wars: Cyber Attacks and Covert Sabotage

Even as diplomats haggled, a shadow war was being waged on Iran’s nuclear infrastructure through clandestine means. Beginning in the mid-2000s, Iran’s facilities suffered mysterious malfunctions. The most notorious was Stuxnet, a sophisticated computer worm uncovered in 2010 that had silently attacked the control systems at Natanz uranium enrichment plant. The malware, a joint US-Israeli creation, was designed to make Iran’s high-speed centrifuges spin out of control. By some estimates, Stuxnet destroyed up to 1,000 centrifuges at Natanz – roughly 10 percent of Iran’s operating machines – and set back enrichment work by months or years. It marked the first known instance of a cyber weapon causing physical destruction abroad. American and Israeli intelligence agencies never officially took credit, but investigators later confirmed Stuxnet was the product of a U.S.-Israel covert program, code-named Operation Olympic Games, aimed at Iran’s nuclear sites. Tehran angrily accused Washington and Tel Aviv of cyber warfare, and Western officials privately acknowledged this digital strike as a new front in conflict.

Sabotage was not confined to the digital realm. Iranian facilities and military sites were plagued by explosions and accidents that many believe were the handiwork of foreign agents. In July 2020, a major blast ripped through a centrifuge assembly hall at Natanz. Iranian officials eventually admitted a “sabotage operation” had caused the explosion. Western intelligence and media reports attributed the attack to Israel, with sources describing how a bomb smuggled into the site blew apart the heavily guarded facility. The head of Israel’s Mossad spy agency at the time even hinted at involvement – later boasting to journalists that “we hit Natanz” and caused extensive damage.

That same summer, a string of fires and blasts struck other Iranian sites: a missile research complex at Parchin blew up on June 25, 2020, and days later an explosion scorched a power plant in Ahvaz. While Iranian officials publicly referred to some of these as accidents, internally they suspected Israeli or US sabotage. Indeed, an unnamed Middle Eastern intelligence source told The New York Times that Israel had planted the Natanz bomb, and even Iran’s own security apparatus eventually acknowledged foreign hands were likely at play. Tehran’s Atomic Energy Organization declared such incidents “nuclear terrorism” and warned Iran would retaliate in kind. Despite the blasts and resulting delays, Iran rebuilt and fortified its sites, vowing its nuclear advancement would continue unabated.

Targeted Assassinations: Silencing the Scientists

Perhaps the most chilling element of the covert campaign has been the systematic assassination of Iranian nuclear scientists. Beginning in the late 2000s, key figures in Iran’s atomic program began to die in violent and mysterious circumstances. In January 2010, a remote-controlled bomb tore apart the car of Dr. Masoud Ali-Mohammadi, a professor in Tehran – the first in a series of brazen hits. Later that year two other scientists were targeted on the same day: Majid Shahriari was killed by a magnetic bomb slapped on his vehicle by assailants on motorcycles, while Fereydoon Abbasi, a future head of Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization, narrowly survived a similar bomb attack. In July 2011, Darioush Rezaeinejad, an electronics specialist linked to the nuclear program, was gunned down outside his home. And in January 2012, 32-year-old chemical engineer Mostafa Ahmadi Roshan – an official at Natanz – was assassinated by another magnet bomb during Tehran’s morning rush hour. The culprits in all these killings were never caught, but Iran pointed the finger squarely at Israel’s Mossad, often via proxy agents. Western intelligence officials later conceded Mossad was indeed behind the campaign, sometimes using members of the dissident MEK group as triggermen. The objective was clear: to terrorize Iran’s scientific community and deter work on the nuclear project.

The shadow war’s most high-profile victim came on November 27, 2020, when Iran’s top nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh was ambushed east of Tehran. Multiple shots – reportedly fired by an Israeli-operated robotic gun – struck Fakhrizadeh in his car, killing the man long described as the architect of any secret bomb program. Iranian officials immediately accused Israel and vowed revenge. Fakhrizadeh’s name had infamously been singled out by Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu in a 2018 presentation about Iran’s alleged nuclear weapons work – “Remember that name,” Netanyahu had warned. Now Fakhrizadeh was dead, and Iran’s intelligence ministry later claimed it had arrested a network of domestic collaborators involved in the plot. Tehran and even some American observers labelled the scientist killings as terrorism. U.S. Senator Bernie Sanders, for instance, blasted Fakhrizadeh’s murder as “a reckless, provocative, and illegal act”. Iranian media periodically publicize arrests or trials of purported spies linked to these assassinations, though the masterminds – Mossad agents on foreign soil – remain beyond Iran’s reach.

Despite losing at least a half-dozen nuclear experts to date, Iran asserts that such “elimination campaigns” have failed to stop its progress. Indeed, new scientists have stepped up. But the message from Israel’s covert apparatus was unmistakable: anyone aiding Iran’s nuclear ambitions could be marked for death. This campaign of intimidation significantly escalated the covert conflict, taking it to the streets of Tehran and deep into the realm of covert action – far from any declared battlefield.

Mossad’s Daring Heist in Tehran

In addition to sabotage and killings, Israel pulled off an espionage coup straight out of a spy thriller. In January 2018, Mossad agents infiltrated a warehouse in a suburb of Tehran and stole a huge cache of Iran’s secret nuclear files. In a meticulously planned overnight operation, about two dozen operatives breached a secure storage facility unawares and hauled away some 50,000 pages of documents and 163 compact discs worth of confidential plans. The trove included designs, photos and memoranda from Iran’s clandestine “AMAD Project” – a program that had researched nuclear warheads up until 2003. Israeli teams whisked the evidence out of Iran before dawn.

A few months later, Prime Minister Netanyahu unveiled portions of the stolen archive on live television, dramatically opening binders and displaying CDs as proof that “Iran lied” about never seeking nuclear weapons. The sheer scale of the Mossad operation on Iran’s home turf stunned intelligence observers. Tehran was caught flat-footed; it had no idea the warehouse – an unassuming building in Shorabad district – was emptied until after Mossad’s trucks were long gone. Iranian officials were deeply embarrassed by the breach and later admitted the files were genuine, though they insisted the nuclear weapons project was long abandoned.

The Mossad archive heist proved to be a propaganda windfall for Israel, undermining Iran’s credibility just as the US was re-evaluating the 2015 nuclear deal. It also showcased Israel’s ability to penetrate the heart of Iran’s security and reinforced that no Iranian secrets were safe. In Tehran’s eyes, it was yet another hostile attack – this time not a bomb or virus, but a theft of its national secrets – and it further inflamed the conflict between the two nations.

Open Skies: Airstrikes on Iran’s Allies and Assets Abroad

While covert action raged inside Iran, Israel also engaged Iranian forces and proxies more overtly across the Middle East. Starting in the 2010s, Israel’s Air Force conducted hundreds of strikes in Syria, targeting Iranian Revolutionary Guard units, weapons depots, and convoys supplying Hezbollah. Since 2012, Iran had built up a military presence in Syria to support President Bashar al-Assad’s regime, including deploying IRGC commanders and funnelling advanced munitions to Hezbollah. Israel made clear this was a red line: any Iranian base entrenchment or precision missiles in Syria would be bombed. True to its word, Israeli fighter jets, often the stealthy F-35I, have pummelled dozens of Iran-linked sites on Syrian soil. They struck everything from ammunition warehouses near Damascus to Iranian-run air defence batteries. In one 2022 raid near the Syrian capital, Israel hit an arms depot and killed at least four IRGC members, alongside Syrian soldiers. Though Israel rarely confirms specifics, officials privately say these “war between wars” operations have been hugely successful in degrading Iran’s forward-deployed arsenal in Syria. For Iran, however, these strikes are a costly bleed – senior IRGC officers like General Hussein Hamadani, killed near Aleppo in 2015, and others have perished. Yet Tehran has limited options to retaliate directly without sparking a larger war; instead, it has sometimes tried to use proxies – like sending drones from Syria toward Israel, which were intercepted.

Beyond Syria, Iran and Israel engaged in tit-for-tat attacks in the shadows elsewhere. In Iraq, explosions rocked bases of Iranian-backed militias in 2019 – blasts attributed to Israeli drone strikes aimed at Iranian missiles stored there. In the Red Sea and Persian Gulf, mysterious limpet mine attacks struck ships linked to Iran or Israel during 2019–2021, as each side apparently targeted the other’s vessels. Iran’s oil tankers bound for Syria were hit by limpet mines, widely blamed on Israel, while Israeli-owned commercial ships were damaged by suspected IRGC mines or drones. This undeclared maritime skirmishing threatened to disrupt global shipping lanes, prompting the US Navy to increase patrols.

Meanwhile, Iran’s regional proxies periodically launched their own attacks against American and Israeli interests – often as retaliation. In Iraq and Syria, Iran-backed militias shelled bases housing US troops, and the United States hit back with airstrikes on those militia positions – notably in February and June 2021. Each round risked escalation, though both Washington and Tehran typically sought to contain these flare-ups. Iran’s Lebanese ally Hezbollah also clashed sporadically with Israel, though full-scale war was averted after 2006. In Yemen, the Iran-aligned Houthi rebels fired missiles and drones at Saudi and Emirati targets – and occasionally at ships in the Red Sea – actions that, while mainly part of the Yemen war, signalled Iran’s reach. Through all this, Iran and Israel fought a cold but increasingly hot war in multiple theatres – a conflict often described as the “Iran–Israel proxy conflict.” Civilians were largely spared direct harm until the conflict edged closer to open confrontation in the 2020s.

From Shadows to Lightning War: Escalation in 2024

By late 2023, the long-simmering hostilities erupted into something much more direct. A series of incidents in 2024 suggested that Israel and the United States were inching toward open military action against Iran. In April 2024, Israel carried out limited airstrikes on Iranian soil – the first acknowledged Israeli attack on Iran in decades. Just before dawn on April 19, Israeli jets struck an Iranian air defence site in Isfahan province, destroying a radar facility that protected the Natanz nuclear complex. Simultaneously, Israeli warplanes hit Iran-linked targets in Syria and even across the border in Iraq, in what appeared to be a coordinated operation. The strikes were framed by Israel as retaliation for an earlier Iranian attack on Israel, reportedly a missile strike that Iran or its proxies had launched. Tehran, caught by surprise, downplayed the damage – but satellite images later confirmed an S-300 air defence battery in Iran was knocked out.

This clash did not occur in isolation. Tensions had already spiked after Iran was accused of orchestrating rocket fire from Gaza and Lebanon into Israel. Iran’s Supreme Leader had also stepped up his rhetoric, praising “resistance” against Israel. By the autumn of 2024, the situation deteriorated further. In October 2024 – amidst global focus on other conflicts – Israel launched a far more ambitious operation, code-named “Operation Days of Repentance.” Over several days around October 26, 2024, Israeli forces struck multiple high-value targets across Iran. These included secret Iranian military bases and missile production sites, some of which Western intelligence had been monitoring. One raid hit an IRGC drone base; another targeted a facility associated with Iran’s ballistic missile program. The attacks were significant enough that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu later boasted “all objectives were met” and that Iran’s capabilities were dealt a severe blow. Iranian air defences managed to fire some missiles in response but with limited effect.

Crucially, Iran did retaliate openly this time – launching volleys of medium-range ballistic missiles toward Israel in late October 2024. Most were intercepted by Israel’s Arrow and David’s Sling defence systems, but a few projectiles hit sites in the Negev Desert. The exchange marked the most direct Iran-Israel confrontation to date. It alarmed world powers and prompted frantic behind-the-scenes diplomacy to prevent further escalation. The United States, then in the midst of a presidential election season, warned Iran against targeting US forces or allies, but also quietly urged restraint on Israel. By early November 2024, a fragile calm set in, though both sides were clearly preparing for the possibility of a larger war. Iran began dispersing some of its military assets and reinforcing nuclear sites, while Israel put its forces on high alert and civil defence drills were conducted in Israeli cities. The stage was set for an even more explosive showdown if a spark ignited.

Operation “Rising Lion”: June 2025 – Strikes on Iran’s Nuclear Sites

That spark came in June 2025. After months of brinkmanship, Israel and the United States launched a series of unprecedented strikes aimed squarely at the heart of Iran’s nuclear program. In the early hours of June 13, 2025, Israeli Air Force squadrons executed Operation Rising Lion – a massive aerial onslaught across Iran. Wave after wave of Israeli jets penetrated Iranian airspace (eluding or having already crippled Iran’s radar systems) and bombed nuclear facilities, missile silos, Revolutionary Guard bases, and command centres. Targets ranged from the sprawling Natanz uranium enrichment complex in central Iran to military sites on the outskirts of Tehran. In Tehran itself, successive explosions rocked an IRGC headquarters, reportedly killing several senior commanders. Among those said to be slain was General Hossein Salami, the chief of the Revolutionary Guard Corps. Israeli precision strikes also hit Iran’s missile production plants and air defence nodes, seeking to blind Iran’s response capabilities.

The jewel of Iran’s nuclear program – the fortified Natanz enrichment site – was struck with particular ferocity. Bunker-busting munitions pounded Natanz’s underground halls where thousands of centrifuges were enriching uranium. Western analysts speculated that Israel’s goal was to collapse Natanz’s halls or at least wipe out the advanced centrifuges within. As blasts thundered at Natanz, Iran’s leadership was stunned. It was the largest single attack Israel had ever mounted against Iran, amounting to the opening salvos of a war. Iran’s state media reported that dozens were killed or injured, including nuclear scientists working the night shift. Fires raged at some sites, and plumes of smoke were visible at dawn around Tehran and Natanz.

Iran’s retaliation was swift. By nightfall on June 13, 2025, Tehran’s armed forces launched volleys of ballistic missiles at Israel – the first time Iranian missiles had ever targeted Tel Aviv and Jerusalem directly. Air raid sirens wailed across Israel as the Iranian salvo, fewer than 100 missiles in total, streaked in. Many were intercepted by Israeli Arrow-3 and US-supplied THAAD anti-missile systems – in fact, the U.S. military joined in, helping shoot down incoming missiles aimed at Israeli cities. Even so, some warheads slipped through: one Iranian missile hit an apartment block in Ramat Gan near Tel Aviv, injuring dozens on the ground. Another struck near central Tel Aviv, causing significant damage to high-rise floors. For the first time in history, Iran and Israel were exchanging direct fire on each other’s territory. Israeli officials grimly noted it as their most severe home-front bombardment since the 1991 Gulf War.

The spectre of a regional conflagration loomed. Yet events took an even more consequential turn when, a week later, the United States overtly entered the fray. On June 21, 2025, U.S. President Donald Trump, newly returned to office, announced that American B-2 stealth bombers had struck three critical nuclear sites in Iran, in coordination with Israel. This marked a dramatic escalation: after years of covert assistance to Israel, Washington’s military now directly attacked Iran. The targets were Iran’s most hardened facilities – Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan – sites considered beyond Israel’s solo ability to destroy. Fordow, buried deep under a mountain near Qom, had long been deemed impregnable to all but the heaviest “bunker buster” bombs. Indeed, Trump confirmed that he authorized use of the GBU-57A/B Massive Ordnance Penetrator, a 30,000-pound bunker-busting bomb only deliverable by B-2 bombers. In a social media post, Trump exulted: “A full payload of BOMBS was dropped on the primary site, Fordow… All planes are safely on their way home”. The strikes, he claimed, were “very successful,” and he declared this a historic moment for the U.S., Israel, and the world.

The direct US intervention came after behind-the-scenes Israeli appeals. Israeli leaders had reportedly told Washington that only America’s bunker-busters could ensure the destruction of Iran’s deeply buried enrichment plants. With Israel’s campaign softening up Iran’s air defences over the preceding week, Trump agreed to unleash American firepower to finish the job. Iran’s regime, in turn, saw the U.S. entry as confirmation of its worst fears – that Israel and America were united in waging war on the Islamic Republic. Tehran had earlier warned that any American attack would trigger “an all-out war in the region”. Now Iranian officials vowed the United States would “pay dearly.” Hours after the U.S. bombing runs, Iran fired additional missiles at Israeli targets and at U.S. bases in Iraq. It also gave a green light to proxy militias in Iraq, Syria, and Yemen to target American forces. In Yemen, the Houthi rebels announced they were resuming attacks on U.S. Navy ships in the Red Sea in solidarity with Tehran. The Middle East braced for a broader war even as frantic diplomatic efforts sought to pull the sides back from the brink.

Fallout and Prospects: Retaliation or Restraint?

The June 2025 strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites represent the culmination of a decades-long covert war moving into the open. The immediate implications are profound. Iran’s prized nuclear program lies in ruins, its major enrichment facilities hit by precision bombardment. Western intelligence believes Tehran’s capability to produce weapons-grade uranium has been set back years, if not destroyed outright. For Israel and the US, this was the primary military objective – to prevent Iran from ever reaching a nuclear “breakout.” Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu hailed the operation as a triumph and proof that “Israel will never let Iran get the Bomb”. U.S. officials similarly framed the strikes as a regrettable but necessary action to stop nuclear proliferation by force.

However, the longer-term consequences are perilously uncertain. Iran’s clerical leadership has been humiliated and militarily bloodied but not decapitated. Within days of the attacks, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei gave a fiery address calling the U.S.-Israeli operation an “act of war” and vowing “painful revenge”. Iranian hardliners, always suspicious of diplomacy, have been vindicated in their view that Washington only understands force. Any thought of resurrecting nuclear negotiations is off the table; Iran announced it will quit the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty entirely and race to rebuild its program in secret. In the near term, Iran is likely to retaliate asymmetrically. The regime has a playbook for this: use proxies and covert operatives to exact a price from its enemies. Global security agencies are on high alert for Iranian or Hezbollah terror attacks against Israeli and Jewish targets worldwide – such as embassy bombings or assassination attempts. In past episodes, Iran responded to Israeli actions with overseas plots – for example, a 2012 bombing of Israeli tourists in Bulgaria after earlier scientist killings. Now, with open war at home, Iranian operatives or allied militants could strike anywhere from Latin America to Europe to the Far East in search of soft targets linked to Israel or the US. Western intelligence services warn that Iran’s Quds Force might activate sleeper cells or persuade sympathetic Shia militias abroad to carry out terrorist reprisals. Soft targets – tourist resorts, community centres, airliners – are all potential targets, raising fears of a global wave of violence.

Regionally, the risk of a wider war remains high. Thus far, Iran’s closest allies – Hezbollah in Lebanon and militias in Syria and Iraq – have been relatively quiet, partly due to being weakened by years of conflict with Israel and Islamic State. Hezbollah has tens of thousands of rockets aimed at Israel, but the group also just endured a costly war in 2023 and faces domestic backlash in Lebanon. Still, if Iran demands all proxies join the fight, Hezbollah could unleash barrages on northern Israel, opening a second front. Israeli defence officials have explicitly warned Tehran that any such move would bring devastating retaliation against Lebanon – a sobering deterrent that has so far kept Hezbollah at bay. The Gaza Strip is another potential flashpoint; Hamas and Islamic Jihad, Sunni groups aligned with Iran, might see an opportunity to incite an intifada or rocket campaign, forcing Israel to fight on multiple fronts. Meanwhile, Gulf Arab states, though long hostile to Iran, dread being caught in the crossfire. Saudi Arabia and the UAE have ballistic missile defences on standby in case Iran, or the Houthis in Yemen, aim missiles at their cities in revenge for tacitly supporting Israel. Both Gulf states have urged de-escalation publicly, even as they quietly cheer the blows to Iran’s nuclear sites.

Diplomatically, the strikes have sent shockwaves. Russia and China, which counted on Iran as a partner and opposed US-Israeli military action, condemned the attack and may step up support to Tehran as a counterweight. European allies of the US are split: Britain and France have cautiously backed the aim of stopping Iran’s bomb program, but Germany and others worry the war will spiral and destabilize energy markets. The United Nations Security Council convened an emergency session but, predictably, was paralyzed by great power vetoes. Calls for a ceasefire and renewed negotiations have thus far gone nowhere – the trust needed for diplomacy has been obliterated.

In the coming weeks, much hinges on whether Iran opts for restraint or revenge. If Tehran’s retaliation remains limited – symbolic missile strikes and deniable proxy attacks – this conflict might simmer back into the shadows. Israeli and American officials have signalled they “do not seek a broader war”, describing the mission as a one-time operation to neutralize a specific threat. President Trump, while boasting of success, also stated he has “no interest in a ground invasion” of Iran. This suggests Washington hopes the mission can be concluded without entangling US forces in a prolonged conflict. Iran’s regime, though outraged, must also consider survival – an all-out war could threaten the very existence of the Islamic Republic. The Iranian military would likely fare poorly in open combat against the combined might of the US and Israel. These sober realities may impose a degree of caution on Tehran’s response.

Nevertheless, the likelihood of further escalation cannot be dismissed. Wars, once started, often have unpredictable momentum. A single miscalculation – say, an IRGC ballistic missile killing large numbers of Israeli civilians, or an Israeli strike accidentally hitting a sensitive Iranian civilian site – could inflame public opinion and force leaders to double down. There is also the spectre of terrorist revenge beyond the Middle East. If Iranian-linked operatives bomb a Western city or assassinate a diplomat abroad, the US and its allies will feel compelled to answer, potentially striking Iran again. At that point, containing the conflict would be extraordinarily difficult. The ghosts of history loom: Iran’s allies recall how the 1980s tanker war and tit-for-tat attacks eventually led to tragedies like the downing of Flight 655. In Israel, memories of 1973’s Yom Kippur War – when the nation was caught off guard – drive a determination to maintain overwhelming deterrence now. Both sides are steeped in a narrative of existential threat, which can fuel a cycle of escalation.

As of now, the conflict sits at a perilous crossroads. The secret war on Iran’s nuclear program is no longer secret; it has exploded into a very public confrontation with potentially devastating consequences. The coming days will test whether cooler heads in Tehran, Tel Aviv, and Washington can step back from the abyss opened by the June 2025 strikes. Either a diplomatic initiative will emerge – perhaps via backchannels, as occurred after past Middle East wars – or the region may slide into a new, deadlier phase of conflict. One thing is certain: Iran’s nuclear ambitions have been dealt a heavy blow, but the Islamic Republic’s desire for retribution has only been sharpened. After four decades of covert skirmishes, the Iran-Israel conflict stands on the knife’s edge between uneasy peace and a war with no clear end.

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