Israel’s Pre-emptive Strikes in Syria

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Following the unexpected collapse of President Bashar al-Assad’s regime, Israel launched a series of pre-emptive strikes across Syria. These operations aimed to neutralize potential threats from advanced weaponry and prevent their acquisition by hostile entities amid the ensuing power vacuum.

The sudden downfall of Assad’s government, precipitated by a swift rebel offensive, led to significant instability in Syria. The absence of central authority raised concerns about the security of Syria’s military arsenals, including chemical weapons and advanced missile systems. Israel, perceiving an imminent threat from these unsecured weapons potentially falling into the hands of extremist groups, deemed it necessary to act decisively.

The fall of one of the most brutal regimes in modern Middle Eastern history occurred after just 12 days of intense fighting between the Syrian army and a coalition of opposition forces, bringing an end to the 13-year Syrian civil war. The conflict claimed the lives of over 350,000 people and forced at least 13 million Syrians to flee their homes.

Hafez al-Assad (1930–2000) served as the 18th president of Syria from 1971 until he died in 2000. His son, Bashar al-Assad(1965), a politician and military officer like his father, was from 2000 until his government was overthrown by Syrian rebels in 2024. As president, Bashar Assad was the commander-in-chief of the Syrian Armed Forces and the secretary-general of the Central Command of the Arab Socialist Ba’ath Party. 

Friends with Russians

Syria established ties with the Soviet Union in 1944 and became the first Arab nation to purchase Soviet arms in the 1950s. While other Arab states distanced themselves from Moscow in the 1970s, Hafez al-Assad maintained a close alliance. Relations persisted after the USSR’s collapse, with Russia retaining its naval base in Tartous. In 2004, Bashar al-Assad visited Moscow to strengthen ties and seek military modernization.

Syria’s alliance with Iran began in 1979, united by opposition to Iraq’s Saddam Hussein. The 2003 US invasion of Iraq further solidified their partnership to counter American influence in the region.

Israel’s pre-emptive strikes across Syria

Taking out weaponry Israel fears could fall into the hands of hostile forces, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) executed a comprehensive aerial campaign targeting key military installations across Syria. Beginning on December 8, 2024, the primary objectives were to destroy stockpiles of chemical weapons, missile bases, and air defense systems:

  • Khalkhala Air Base: Located north of Suwayda, this base housed a significant portion of Syria’s air force. Israeli strikes rendered it inoperable, destroying numerous aircraft and infrastructure.
  • Mezzeh Air Base: Situated near Damascus, Mezzeh was a strategic military site. Israeli airstrikes targeted its runways and ammunition depots, causing substantial damage.
  • Scientific Studies and Research Center (SSRC) in Damascus: Believed to be involved in the development of chemical weapons, the SSRC was heavily bombarded to prevent any proliferation of non-conventional arms.
  • Port of Latakia: Israeli naval forces targeted Syria’s naval assets docked at Latakia, effectively neutralizing the Syrian navy overnight.
  • Qamishli Airport: Located in northern Syria, this airport was struck to disrupt any potential smuggling routes for weapons.

In total, Israel conducted over 350 airstrikes within 48 hours, claiming to have destroyed approximately 70-80% of Syria’s strategic weaponry. The United States also launched a strike on military assets in eastern Syria following a rocket attack near one of its bases.

Turkey has also attacked Syria, recently. Turkish airstrikes in drought-stricken north-east Syria have left over a million people without access to electricity and water, an act experts suggest may breach international law. Between October 2019 and January 2024, Turkey conducted over 100 strikes on oil fields, gas facilities, and power stations in the Kurdish-controlled Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria (AANES).

Mixed International Response

The international community’s reaction was mixed. The United States expressed support for Israel’s actions, emphasizing the necessity of preventing advanced weaponry from reaching extremist groups. Conversely, United Nations experts criticized the strikes, labeling them as violations of international law and urging restraint to avoid further destabilization of the region.

Weakened Iran and Russia

The pre-emptive strikes significantly altered the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East:

  • Iran’s Position: Iran’s influence in Syria, already diminished by Assad’s fall, was further weakened. The destruction of supply routes to Hezbollah in Lebanon disrupted Tehran’s strategy of encircling Israel with allied forces.
  • Russia’s Role: Russia, a staunch supporter of Assad, faced a strategic setback. The loss of its ally in Damascus and the subsequent Israeli military actions undermined Moscow’s standing in the region, limiting its ability to project power in the Middle East.
  • Hezbollah’s Isolation: With the severance of supply lines through Syria, Hezbollah found itself isolated in Lebanon, struggling to maintain its operational capabilities without Iranian support.

Complex Security Dilemma: Future Rulers of Syria

HTS leader Abu Muhammad Al-Joulani speaking words of encouragement to his fighters in 2018: ”We are not at a moment of defeat. Allah willing, we will reach not only Damascus. Jerusalem awaits us as well.”  (Image: Memri TV)

The emergence of a new regime in Syria, potentially led by extremist factions such as Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), poses significant security challenges. While HTS leaders have expressed a desire for diplomatic solutions and stability, their extremist roots raise concerns about the potential for Syria to become a hub for radical activities. The West, particularly the United States, faces a complex dilemma: balancing the opportunity to diminish Iranian and Russian influence with the risk of empowering Islamist groups that could destabilize the region further.

The U.S. State Department has long offered a $10 million reward for the capture of Abu Mohammed al-Jawlani, the founder and leader of HTS. Al-Jawlani previously fought under Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, the infamous leader of al-Qaeda in Iraq, and spent five years in an Iraqi prison due to his involvement in terrorist activities. In 2011, he returned to Syria and established Jabhat al-Nusra, al-Qaeda’s affiliate in the region. As the group’s commander, al-Jawlani was implicated in numerous crimes, including the detention and torture of American journalist Theo Padnos from 2012 to 2014.

With pre-emptive strikes in Syria in December 2024, Israel achieved immediate security objectives by neutralizing potential threats. However, these actions have also contributed to a rapidly evolving regional dynamic. The diminished roles of Iran and Russia, coupled with the uncertain future of Syria under new leadership, present both opportunities and challenges for regional and global stakeholders.

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