Accelerating Arms-Race: The Three‑Month Catch‑Up

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It takes roughly three months—sometimes less—for one side to blunt or neutralise a new weapon or tech deployed by the other. That time frame aligns with how Ukraine and Russia have structured their war economies: agile production, volunteer ecosystems, frontline feedback, and adaptive tactics. The race isn’t strategic—it’s industrial, digital, brutal—and evolving in real-time.

Within about three months, one side in the Russia–Ukraine war can develop countermeasures to a novel weapon or tactic deployed by the other. Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) senior analyst Michael Watling reminded Russia is “rapidly exploiting weak points in tech and supply chains” tapped by Ukraine. The implication being that once a Ukrainian innovation surfaces, Moscow reacts almost immediately. Kyiv must innovate to keep its edge, Watling said at the 17th annual Kyiv Security Forum in May 2025.

Carnegie Endowment for International Peace reports that during 2023, Russian forces not only introduced new systems but also “revised tactics for their employment”. That suggests adaptation cycles measured in months, not years. Russian forces adapted relatively quickly in employing uncrewed aerial systems and deploying new types of electronic warfare systems on the battlefield, the Carnegie report noted. “By late 2023, they were increasingly capable of dynamic targeting at the tactical level, with better integration of reconnaissance, fires, and electronic warfare,” the report added.

Also, ISW (Institute for the Study of War)has noted multiple Russian responses only in 2025 in its June 2025 report — from forming “Unmanned Systems Forces” to testing laser anti‑drone systems, which will reportedly make up Russia’s universal air defence system. There are plenty of examples of this accelerating arms race:

  • 1) Precision‑airdrop and guided rounds. Systems like the American GBU‑39 Small Diameter Bomb (and its ground‑launched variants) initially worked wonders—until Russia deployed jammers that rendered them “ineffective” in months.
  • 2) Russian Lancet kamikaze drones. First seen in early 2023, the Lancet began targeting Ukrainian tanks and radars. By mid‑2023, Ukraine was scrambling to counter them — while Russia was ramping up production.
  • 3) Drone swarms and AI. A June 2025 Guardian article highlights how both sides moved rapidly from FPV drones to AI‑guided “swarm” tactics and semi‑autonomous targeting within months.
  • 4) Motorbikes vs drones. To dodge Ukrainian drones, Russian troops improvised by forming motorcycle units. This counter‑tactic emerged within a few months of drone swarms saturating the front.
Innovation typeDeployment speedAdaptation/response time
Drone + AI targetingWeeks–monthsWeeks–months
Guided munitions + jammingRapid (1–3 mo)~3 months
Aircraft-delivered precision bombs<6 months~3 months
Large kamikaze drones (Lancet)MonthsCounter‑drone systems within months

Why the Arms Race is Accelerating

Several factors are shortening the cycle from innovation to deployment and counter‑measures:

  • 1) Agile industrialisation & NGOs. Both Ukraine and Russia now rely less on traditional defence contractors and more on startups, volunteer tech communities, and local manufacturers.
  • 2) Simplified acquisition systems. Ukraine has rebuilt procurement to act quickly—vetting and fielding systems in days or weeks, not years.
  • 3) Mass production of simple tech. Millions of low‑cost UAVs and ammunition are produced fast—Russia alone churns out enough ammo in three months to match NATO’s annual production.
  • 4) Battlefield feedback loops. Real‑time capture, reverse‑engineering, and adaptation are practised daily. Ukraine’s Unmanned Systems Forces codify frontline feedback; Russia formed its own similar structure.

This war is a live testbed for high‑tempo tech warfare. Speed beats scale. Rapid prototyping and fielding—even if imperfect—trumps grand acquisition programmes. Integration is also critical. Dozens of homemade drones and jammers must work together—not everyone is doing that well yet. Adaptation and counter-adaptation is the norm. Every new tech spurts a fresh wave of development from the other side, in a tight loop. There is a danger of a Global spillover. As autonomous drones diffuse, international consensus on regulating lethal AI weapons remains weak.

There are lessons to learn for Western NATO countries in this Russo-Ukrainian arms race. Western procurement needs a rethink. Money must shift from tanks and legacy kit to drones, AI, and software. The old giants — Lockheed, Boeing, Thales, Rheinmetall — are too slow. As the Financial Times has noted, nimble newcomers like Anduril and Helsing are faster, but even they lag behind Ukraine and Russia, who’ve shown they can build, crash, tweak, and relaunch battlefield tech in weeks. Europe must create a lean, fast-moving defence tech ecosystem. That means hacking consumer gear, rewriting procurement rules, and ditching the obsession with gold-plated military hardware.

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