China Wants the War to Continue

By

Beijing’s strategic calculus in Ukraine is no accident—it’s a multi-front investment. On 3 July 2025, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi stunned European counterparts behind closed doors in Brussels by stating bluntly that China “cannot afford to let Russia lose the war in Ukraine”, warning that if Russia collapses, the United States would be free to pivot fully to the Indo-Pacific.

This is not diplomatic fluff. It’s a rare, candid window into Beijing’s logic. For two and a half years, Western observers have debated the extent of China’s support for Russia’s war. Wang’s admission cuts through the ambiguity. China wants the war to go on—not for Russia’s sake, but for its own.

Strategic Delay, Not Ideological Loyalty

China has no sentimental attachment to Putin’s war aims. But it has everything to gain from a prolonged European conflict that locks American attention westward and gives Beijing time to rewire the Indo-Pacific.

If Russia falters, U.S. forces and funding shift from Eastern Europe to East Asia. Taiwan, the South China Sea, Japan, and Guam return to the top of Washington’s defence agenda. China would rather NATO remain overstretched, the EU distracted, and the U.S. caught between two theatres.

The frozen war in Ukraine is Beijing’s strategic buffer. Wang’s remarks simply confirmed what has long been visible to those willing to look past diplomatic pleasantries.

Material Support: The Unspoken Alliance

While Beijing avoids overt arms shipments, Chinese firms are deeply embedded in Russia’s war economy. Ukrainian officials and Western defence researchers have traced growing quantities of Chinese components inside Russian weapons systems, including drones, guided bombs, radios, and optical sensors. Analysts from the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) and Conflict Armament Research (CAR) have catalogued dozens of such instances.

In April 2025, President Zelensky himself publicly accused China of providing artillery components and gunpowder to Russia. Beijing denied the charge, but U.S. and EU officials confirmed that Chinese companies, including state-linked ones like Norinco, have transferred dual-use goods to Russian front companies and intermediaries in Central Asia.

Proxies of Convenience: North Korea and Iran

China’s fingerprints are also found indirectly. North Korea, long reliant on Chinese patronage, has emerged as one of Moscow’s largest arms suppliers. Pyongyang has reportedly sent over two million artillery shells, multiple rocket launchers, Koksan 170 mm guns, and short-range ballistic missiles to Russian forces in Donbas.

The Iranian drone pipeline, similarly, depends on Chinese engines, electronics, and manufacturing tooling. The Shahed/Geran drones that now darken Ukrainian skies owe part of their existence to Chinese supply chains. Beijing maintains plausible deniability, but the network is well-known and tolerated.

This use of proxies allows China to support the war without facing the kind of sanctions that have crippled Russia and Iran. It’s cost-effective, deniable, and strategically efficient.

Fuelling the War: Energy, Finance, and Raw Materials

Beijing is also Russia’s economic lung. China has absorbed the bulk of Russia’s discounted oil and gas exports, offsetting European energy bans. By paying in yuan or roubles, China undermines the dollar’s centrality in global energy markets.

Meanwhile, Chinese financial firms and regional banks facilitate insurance, transport, and clearing for Russian commodities, allowing Moscow to skirt Western sanctions with little disruption. The Bank of Kunlun, for example, has long specialised in sanction-proof financial channels.

Raw materials flow the other way: Russia supplies China with metals, timber, and minerals, many of which are crucial to China’s industrial and military production. This is not simply trade; it is strategic exchange.

Diplomatic Distraction and Information Control

On the world stage, China plays the neutral peacemaker. It offers toothless ceasefire plans, speaks of “sovereignty” and “dialogue,” and continues to insist on a “political solution.”

But behind this diplomatic theatre, Beijing has shielded Russia in the UN Security Council, amplified Kremlin propaganda via state outlets like CGTN, and engaged in global disinformation to muddy the moral clarity of the invasion. Meanwhile, it strengthens economic ties with the Global South—especially those nations sceptical of Western-led alliances—quietly building an anti-Western coalition. Western capitals are wary of confronting China’s role directly. Doing so would widen the war’s political scope. Europe is unwilling; Washington is already burdened by its dual commitments in Ukraine and the Middle East. But ignoring China’s involvement allows it to continue unchecked.

Gaza and the Bonus Front

Though the Gaza war is more directly the product of Iran’s long game and Russia’s opportunism, China benefits from that conflict as well. U.S. military bandwidth is further strained. Western unity is tested. Global headlines shift from Ukraine. Beijing, again, gets time—and distraction.

Beijing’s War of Patience

What emerges is not a story of passive observation but active investment. China is not merely tolerating Russia’s war. It is facilitating it—materially, economically, diplomatically, and strategically

  • War in Ukraine keeps the U.S. pinned down.
  • Russia’s dependence strengthens China’s leverage.
  • Western distraction gives China manoeuvring room in Asia.
  • Proxies like Iran and North Korea do the dirty work.
  • Energy and trade keep Moscow solvent.
  • Global South diplomacy isolates the West.
  • Peace rhetoric gives Beijing cover.

Beijing’s policy is not about saving Putin—it’s about buying time. And if that means hundreds of thousands more dead in Europe, China has made clear it’s a price worth paying.

The true scandal isn’t Wang Yi’s offhand remark in Brussels. It’s that the West still treats China as a bystander in this war. In reality, Beijing is one of its most important enablers. Strategic patience, economic cunning, and diplomatic ambiguity—these are China’s weapons.

Until Western leaders admit this, they will remain reactive, not strategic. The Ukraine war, frozen or not, is a Chinese asset. And the longer it continues, the more Beijing gains.

Read More:

Must Read

×