Conflicts in 2025

Global Conflict Landscape in 2025: Local Wars and Uprisings

By
Share with your friends

The year 2025 is marked by escalating global tensions and volatile geopolitics. Key flashpoints include rising friction in the Baltic Sea, the conflict between Iran and Israel, growing unrest across Asia and Africa, and the ongoing war in Ukraine against Russia. President Donald Trump’s second term hints at a return to isolationist policies. As a sign of the increasing likelihood of open conflict, Taiwan suspects China is behind the severing of an international undersea telecom cable.

Several overarching factors could heighten the risk of global conflicts in 2025: Climate change and resource scarcity bring droughts, floods, and resource shortages (e.g., water and food) exacerbating tensions, particularly in regions with weak governance. Great power competition includes the U.S.-China rivalry, along with tensions between NATO and Russia, that continues to shape the global security environment. Technological threats include cyberattacks, disinformation campaigns, and the weaponization of AI could spark conflicts that blur the lines between war and peace. There will be rising tensions in regions like South Asia and the Korean Peninsula heighten the risk of nuclear confrontations.

Likelihood of Global Conflict

While large-scale global war remains unlikely due to the high costs and risks for major powers, regional conflicts, and proxy wars are expected to persist. These could spill over into broader confrontations if mismanaged.

Europe: Ukraine, Germany, France and the Baltic Sea

The ongoing Ukraine-Russia war continues to have significant geopolitical implications all over Europe. Political gridlock in major European economies such as France and Germany could have broader implications for regional stability. The Baltic Sea emerged as a potential flashpoint after the Estlink-2 undersea power cable between Finland and Estonia was damaged. Finnish authorities detained the Russian-linked vessel Eagle S, alleging its involvement in the incident. In response, Russia accused Finland of “piracy” and announced intentions to deploy its navy to guard its shadow fleet operating in the Baltic.

Both Germany and France are experiencing significant political changes in 2025, with new governments poised to influence their foreign policies and roles in global conflicts. The political transitions in Germany and France are critical for the European Union’s cohesion and its collective response to international conflicts. A more assertive Germany could lead to stronger EU leadership in global affairs, while France’s instability might pose challenges to unified European actions, especially relating to the ongoing war between Ukraine and Russia.

Germany has consistently declined Ukraine's requests for Taurus KEPD 350 cruise missiles, citing concerns over escalating the conflict with Russia. Opposition parties such as the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), have advocated for supplying Ukraine with the Taurus missiles. (Image: Shutterstock)

Germany has consistently declined Ukraine’s requests for Taurus KEPD 350 cruise missiles, citing concerns over escalating the conflict with Russia. Opposition parties such as the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), have advocated for supplying Ukraine with the Taurus missiles. (Image: Shutterstock)

Germany: A New Direction

  • Government Transition: Following the collapse of the ‘traffic light’ coalition, Germany is set to hold federal elections. The potential rise of conservative leadership under Friedrich Merz suggests a shift towards more pragmatic economic policies, including possible reforms to the ‘debt brake’ to stimulate growth.
  • Foreign Policy Stance: Germany may adopt a more assertive role in international affairs, balancing relations with the U.S. under the Trump administration and addressing security concerns in Europe, particularly regarding the conflict in Ukraine. The Greens and the Free Democratic Party (FDP), along with opposition parties such as the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), have advocated for supplying Ukraine with more powerful weapons. Despite these internal pressures, the German Bundestag has voted against such deliveries.

France: Political Upheaval

  • Government Collapse: The recent no-confidence vote has led to the fall of Prime Minister Michel Barnier’s government, plunging France into a political crisis. President Emmanuel Macron faces challenges in appointing a new prime minister capable of navigating a polarized parliament.
  • Policy Implications: The instability may hinder France’s ability to effectively participate in international coalitions and address conflicts, potentially weakening European unity in responding to global crises.
The Baltic Sea: Sabotage and Growing Tensions
  • Energy Security: The disruption of Estlink-2, critical for electricity flow between Finland and Estonia, vulnerabilities in the region’s energy infrastructure. Experts warn of further sabotage attempts on similar infrastructure.
  • Military Escalation: Russia’s announcement to use its navy for protecting vessels increases the risk of encounters with NATO-aligned forces, particularly as Finland joined NATO in 2023 and Sweden in 2024.
  • Economic Repercussions: The Baltic is a vital trade corridor; prolonged tensions could disrupt commercial shipping, adding strain to regional economies.

Possibility of Open War: While the Ukraine-Russia conflict remains active, the likelihood of new large-scale wars in Europe is currently low, barring unforeseen escalations.

President Donald Trump and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu attended the signing ceremony of the Abraham Accords at the White House in Washington, D.C., in 2020. The Trump administration is expected to maintain its strong support for Israel. (Image: Shutterstock)

United States Foreign Policy: The Return of Isolationism?

During President Donald Trump’s second term, the United States could shift towards an isolationist foreign policy reminiscent of his previous tenure. This could create power vacuums in regions where the U.S. has traditionally exerted influence, potentially emboldening adversarial nations and leading to increased regional conflicts. Allied nations may need to reassess their security and economic strategies in response to a more inward-looking America.

“America First” Doctrine
  • Trade Policies: The administration is expected to implement protectionist trade measures, including tariffs and renegotiation of trade agreements, aiming to prioritize American economic interests. This approach may lead to trade disputes with key partners, affecting global markets.
  • Military Engagements: A reduction in overseas military commitments is anticipated, with calls for NATO allies to increase their defense spending and a potential reevaluation of U.S. involvement in conflicts such as the war in Ukraine.
Diplomatic Relations
  • Alliances and Partnerships: Traditional alliances may face strain as the U.S. adopts a more transactional approach, seeking tangible benefits in exchange for support. This could lead to a realignment of global alliances, with countries seeking new partnerships to ensure their security interests.
  • International Organizations: The administration’s skepticism towards multilateral institutions may result in decreased participation or funding, impacting global initiatives on issues like climate change and public health.

North America in 2025 faces risks primarily related to internal political divisions, social unrest, and its role in global conflicts. But there is the Southern border. While internal conflicts in the U.S. and Mexico are unlikely to escalate into open warfare, their destabilizing effects could reverberate across the continent.

Mexico: Drug Wars

  • Drug Cartel Violence: Organized crime groups continue to challenge state authority, with ongoing violence affecting both civilians and law enforcement.
  • Border Issues: Immigration pressures and cross-border tensions with the U.S. may intensify.
Securing Iran’s airspace. Two Iranian air force F-5E Saeqeh flying in the formation during an air show in 2018. (Image: Shutterstock)
Securing Iran’s airspace. Two Iranian Air Force F-5E Saeqeh flying in the formation during an air show in 2018. (Image: Shutterstock)

Middle East: Iran, Israel, Syria and Hamas/Hezbollah

The hostility between Iran and Israel remains one of the most dangerous conflicts in 2025. Israel has intensified its military campaigns, targeting Iranian assets and proxies in Syria and Lebanon. Meanwhile, Tehran continues advancing its nuclear program, prompting warnings from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu about potential preemptive strikes.

Potential Developments:
  • Israeli Preemptive Action: Israel may launch targeted strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, akin to its 1981 strike on Iraq’s Osirak reactor.
  • Iran’s Retaliation: Iran has promised to retaliate strongly, likely through regional proxies like Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza.
  • Regional Destabilization: Escalation risks drawing in major powers, particularly the U.S. and Russia, exacerbating the situation in Syria and beyond.
  • Syria: Recent developments indicate potential shifts in the conflict dynamics. The UN Foundation notes that the end of the war will be just the beginning of the path to shaping a peaceful future, with rebuilding efforts demanding significant planning and resources.
  • Israel and Hamas/Hezbollah: Ongoing conflicts have led to humanitarian crises and regional instability. Riskline anticipates that wars in the Palestinian Territories and Lebanon ignited by Hamas’s 2023 attack on Israel are expected to persist through at least the first quarter of 2025.

Prospects of Revolution in Iran

Iran’s internal unrest persists, driven by economic challenges, political dissent, and societal pressures. Protests following the 2022 death of Mahsa Amini reignited calls for regime change, but the government has maintained a firm grip on power. Analysts debate the likelihood of a revolution in 2025.

Potential Developments:
  • Economic Strain: Western sanctions continue to cripple Iran’s economy, leading to widespread unemployment and inflation.
  • Political Dissent: The reformist movement and youth-led protests demand greater freedoms, though the Revolutionary Guard remains a significant deterrent.
  • Revolutionary Potential: While large-scale change remains unlikely, localized uprisings could destabilize the regime, particularly if economic conditions worsen.
Antilanding spikes on the beach Kinmen of Taiwan. (Image: Shutterstock)
Antilanding spikes on the beach Kinmen of Taiwan. (Image: Shutterstock)

Asia: China, Taiwan, and India

The Taiwan Strait remains a focal point of Asia’s tensions. China continues its aggressive posture, including military drills near Taiwanese waters, while Taiwan bolsters its defenses with U.S. aid. As tensions escalate between the US and China over Taiwan and the South China Sea, the Philippines finds itself at the epicenter of potential conflict. A key US treaty ally, the Philippines is investing billions to bolster its defense capabilities, acquiring modern weaponry, and strengthening its military.

The Korean Peninsula remains a significant risk area for open warfare, given the historical context and current provocations.

China and Taiwan: Temperature is Rising

In early 2025, a similar incident to one in the Baltic Sea occurred near the Taiwanese coast. An international undersea telecom cable connecting Taiwan was cut, possibly by Chinese or Russian cargo ships. Taiwan is increasingly vulnerable to hybrid threats. Enhanced international cooperation is needed to safeguard critical infrastructure in the Indo-Pacific. China’s assertiveness towards Taiwan raises concerns about potential military action. The U.S. Department of Defense has previously analyzed scenarios involving potential conflicts with China in the 2025–2032 timeframe.

Potential Developments:
  • Military Activity: Beijing’s incursions into Taiwan’s air defense identification zone (ADIZ) have become routine, heightening the risk of miscalculation. China is likely to employ various forms of hybrid warfare.
  • U.S. Involvement: The U.S. has increased arms sales to Taiwan and reaffirmed its commitment under the Taiwan Relations Act.

India and China: Disputed Territories

Despite recent agreements aimed at de-escalation, tensions between India and China remain unresolved. Both nations maintain significant military deployments near contentious areas, including Arunachal Pradesh and regions adjacent to Bhutan.

In October 2024, India and China reached an agreement to de-escalate tensions along their disputed border, following a military standoff that began with a deadly clash in 2020. The agreement includes new patrolling arrangements and the disengagement of troops from certain flashpoints. However, the specifics of these arrangements have not been fully disclosed, and both sides continue to bolster infrastructure and military capabilities in the region.

The situation is further complicated by China’s ongoing border negotiations with Bhutan. China and Bhutan have held multiple rounds of talks, with Bhutan seeking a border deal. Any potential agreement will require India’s approval, given the close relationship between Thimphu and New Delhi. India has expressed concerns over China’s claims in areas close to the strategic Siliguri corridor and the state of Arunachal Pradesh, which China refers to as “South Tibet.”

Analysts suggest that while recent agreements indicate a willingness to manage tensions, the possibility of open conflict cannot be entirely dismissed. The continued military presence, infrastructure development, and strategic posturing by both nations contribute to a fragile peace. Incidents such as the December 2022 clash between Indian and Chinese troops in Arunachal Pradesh remind us of the potential for skirmishes to escalate.

Potential Developments:
  • Border Disputes: Skirmishes along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in 2024 could escalate without diplomatic resolution.

Other Asian Hot Spots

  • Korean Peninsula: Rising tensions between North and South Korea, including military provocations and cyber warfare, increase the risk of skirmishes. Riskline forecasts that tensions are expected to intensify in 2025, increasing the likelihood of skirmishes along their borders.
  • Myanmar: Ongoing internal conflicts and humanitarian crises continue to affect the region. The IRC identifies Myanmar as one of the top crises to watch in 2025, with escalating humanitarian needs.
  • Indonesia: The Papua region continues to experience tensions due to separatist movements seeking independence. The Free Papua Movement (OPM) remains active, with incidents such as the kidnapping of a New Zealand pilot in 2023 highlighting ongoing instability. Despite the pilot’s release in 2024, the region’s volatility persists, posing challenges to national security.
    Indonesia, which was is admitted to the BRICS bloc of developing nations in early 2025, has a history of communal conflicts in areas like Lombok, West Timor, and Java. Factors such as ethnic tensions, resource competition, and internal migration contribute to these conflicts. Without effective conflict resolution mechanisms, these issues may escalate, impacting social cohesion.

Africa: Uprisings and Conflict

Africa faces numerous challenges, with political instability and militant activity prominent across several regions. The Sahel remains a hotspot for insurgency, with groups like Boko Haram and ISIS-affiliated militants causing instability in Nigeria, Mali, and Burkina Faso. While the African conflicts are currently localized, the potential for escalation into broader regional wars exists, particularly if international interventions are inadequate or if neighboring countries become directly involved.

Since its independence in 1956, Sudan has been embroiled in continuous conflict, making it one of the most war-torn nations in modern history. The ongoing conflict between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) erupted in April 2023. This power struggle between General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and RSF leader Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (Hemedti) has devastated Sudan.

Potential Developments:
  • Coup Threats: Military coups in Mali and Guinea set a precedent for instability across the region.
  • Humanitarian Crises: Armed conflicts have displaced millions, exacerbating famine and poverty.
  • Sudan: The ongoing civil war has devastated the country, with millions displaced and little hope for peace. The International Rescue Committee (IRC) identifies Sudan as a top crisis to watch in 2025, with escalating violence and displacement.
  • Ethiopia: While the Tigray conflict officially ended in 2022, ethnic tensions persist, risking renewed violence.
  • Somalia: Persistent conflicts, exacerbated by climate shocks and food insecurity, continue to destabilize the region. The IRC warns that Somalia’s hunger crisis is set to worsen through the first months of 2025 due to both continuing conflict and the impacts of the La Niña weather pattern.
  • Mali: The multi-front conflict involving various armed groups poses a significant threat to regional stability. The International Rescue Committee IRC notes that hunger in Mali is getting worse due to an escalating conflict that has been raging for twelve years.
  • Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and Rwanda: Tensions between these nations could escalate, with potential implications for regional security. The Council on Foreign Relations highlights the simmering conflict between the DRC and Rwanda as a situation to watch in 2025.
  • Nigeria: The Islamist insurgency in the northern regions continues to challenge national security. The Council on Foreign Relations notes the chronic Islamist insurgency in northern Nigeria as a key issue in 2025.
Unlikely to be used against Guyana in 2025: T-72B1V tanks of the Venezuelan Army during a parade commemorating the death of former President Hugo Chávez, March 2014. (Image: Cancillería del Ecuador, Wikipedia) (Image: Cancillería del Ecuador from Ecuador, Wikipedia) 

By Cancillería del Ecuador from Ecuador - Caracas, Canciller Ricardo Patiño participó en los actos de conmemoración de la muerte de Hugo Chávez, CC BY-SA 2.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=34719391
Unlikely to be used against Guyana in 2025: T-72B1V tanks of the Venezuelan Army during a parade commemorating the death of former President Hugo Chávez, March 2014.
(Image: Cancillería del Ecuador, Wikipedia)

South America: Emerging Challenges and Conflicts

South America in 2025 is characterized by a complex interplay of political instability, economic challenges, and social unrest, leading to potential conflicts across the continent. Political instability and social unrest are likely due to economic hardships.

The region faces economic downturns, with rising inflation and unemployment rates exacerbating public discontent. Countries like Argentina and Venezuela are particularly affected, with citizens protesting against austerity measures and demanding governmental reforms.

Corruption scandals and ineffective governance have eroded public trust in political institutions. In Brazil, for instance, allegations of corruption within the government have sparked nationwide protests, calling for transparency and accountability.

In Peru, indigenous groups have organized protests against mining activities that threaten their ancestral lands. There are security concerns, such as organized crime. The influence of drug cartels and organized crime syndicates continues to destabilize regions, particularly in Colombia and Mexico. These groups engage in violent confrontations with law enforcement, leading to civilian casualties and displacement.

Venezuela-Guyana Territorial Dispute Over Essequibo Region

The longstanding territorial dispute between Venezuela and Guyana over the Essequibo region continues without resolution, maintaining regional tensions. The Essequibo territory, rich in minerals and oil, comprises approximately two-thirds of Guyana’s landmass but is claimed by Venezuela. Recent developments have exacerbated tensions. In December 2024, Venezuela completed a bridge on Ankoko Island, a territory shared by both nations, linking its mainland to a disputed military base. Guyana formally protested, asserting that the construction violates international agreements and its sovereignty.

The International Court of Justice (ICJ) is currently adjudicating the matter, with Guyana seeking a definitive ruling on the validity of the 1899 arbitral award that delineated the border. Venezuela has been given until August to respond to the proceedings. Analysts suggest that while diplomatic tensions are high, the likelihood of open conflict remains low. Both nations have previously agreed not to use force to settle the dispute, emphasizing peaceful resolution through international legal mechanisms.

Potential Developments:
  • Border Disputes: Territorial disputes, such as those between Venezuela and Guyana over the Essequibo region, remain unresolved, posing risks of diplomatic tensions or military confrontations.
  • Transnational Organized Crime: Activities of narco-crime organizations contribute to regional instability. Global Guardian’s 2025 Global Risk Map highlights transnational organized narco-crime as a key factor shaping the global risk landscape.
  • Political Unrest: Economic and sectarian-fueled unrest could lead to conflicts. Global Guardian notes that economic and sectarian-fueled unrest is among the challenges with the potential to impact multinational organizations and their people in 2025.

Possibility of Open War: While large-scale wars are unlikely, localized conflicts and violence related to organized crime and political unrest may persist.

Oceania: Critical Theater for Geopolitical Maneuvering

While open warfare is unlikely in Oceania, the region remains a critical theater for geopolitical maneuvering, particularly between the U.S., China, and Australia. Proxy conflicts and disputes over maritime boundaries are more plausible than direct conflict.

Australia and the Pacific Islands

  • Climate-Related Conflicts: Rising sea levels and climate change are fueling disputes over resources and migration in Pacific Island nations.
  • China’s Influence: Beijing’s expanding presence in the Pacific region, including military and economic activities, may lead to friction with Australia and its allies.

New Zealand

Geopolitical Neutrality at Risk: As tensions between major powers rise, New Zealand may face pressure to take a more active stance.

Conflicts by Continents

  • Africa: Conflicts in Sudan, Somalia, Mali, and the DRC are localized but risk escalation if external actors intervene.
  • Asia: The Korean Peninsula and Taiwan are critical flashpoints, with the potential for limited military conflicts.
  • Europe: The Ukraine-Russia war remains the most active conflict, but new large-scale wars are unlikely without further provocations.
  • Middle East: Regional tensions remain high, particularly in Israel, Syria, and Yemen, with no clear path to resolution.
  • South America: Political and narco-related violence dominate, but large-scale wars are improbable.
  • North America: Internal unrest and global commitments shape the risk landscape.
  • Oceania: Strategic competition in the Pacific raises concerns over geopolitical tensions rather than direct conflict.

The global risk landscape in 2025 is marked by persistent regional conflicts, geopolitical rivalries, and emerging threats such as climate-induced crises and cyber warfare. While open warfare remains unlikely in most regions, the potential for escalation exists, particularly in flashpoints like the Korean Peninsula, Taiwan, and Ukraine. Strategic diplomacy and multilateral cooperation will be crucial in mitigating these risks.

Read More:

Must Read