Who’s Pulling the Trigger? Why the West Can’t Afford to Fall Behind in AI Warfare

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The rise of artificial intelligence in military decision-making is transforming modern warfare, from battlefield operations to strategic planning. One fact stands clear: the West must adapt and advance its AI capabilities to stay ahead of competing, challenging state powers like China and Russia, as well as the threat posed by rogue states and non-state actors, such as terrorists, who could exploit this transformative technology.

While artificial intelligence’s (AI) influence grows, so does the fear that it might begin to control critical aspects of our security policies—potentially leading to unintended consequences or even outright disaster. Throughout history, new technology has always been met with fear. The printing press was accused of destabilizing societies, and the steam engine once seemed like an unstoppable, dangerous force. Today, AI faces similar skepticism. But when used properly—with the right knowledge, ethics, and understanding—these tools can be wielded for good. However, one critical question remains: who gets to decide what is “good”?

Keeping Pace with China and Russia

There’s no doubt about it: AI is reshaping the battlefield, and the stakes have never been higher for Western powers. China and Russia have been quick to incorporate AI into their military strategies, and they are accelerating at a pace that threatens to outmatch Western capabilities. For the U.S., Europe, and allied nations, staying ahead of this curve isn’t just about technological superiority—it’s about ensuring global security and preventing adversaries from gaining the upper hand.

The competition is fierce. China’s “intelligentised” warfare integrates AI into both civilian and military spheres, while Russia focuses on autonomous robotic systems, driving fears of a new AI arms race. Western militaries must respond quickly, integrating AI into defence systems not only for efficiency but also to safeguard the balance of global power. As a RAND report suggests, this AI revolution offers an opportunity for the West to strengthen its military superiority—if we embrace it fully.

Faster, Smarter Decision-Making: A Double-Edged Sword

AI can process vast amounts of data at speeds incomprehensible to humans, making it invaluable in military strategy. It can predict enemy movements, analyze satellite images, and optimize supply chains, allowing for rapid, informed decision-making. These capabilities are crucial, especially in today’s fast-evolving conflict zones. RAND’s report on AI in warfare highlights the immense potential AI has in enhancing operational efficiency.

In modern military operations, AI is already improving human-machine teaming, where machines take on high-risk or monotonous tasks, such as reconnaissance, freeing up soldiers for more complex decisions. This is vital as Western militaries face increasing operational demands with limited human resources.

But there’s a catch: how long before these machines start making decisions without us? The fear that AI might act too quickly for human intervention—leading to catastrophic mistakes—is not unfounded. The concept of “hyper war,” where decisions are made at machine speed without human oversight, is becoming less theoretical and more a near-future reality.

AI, Autonomous Weapons, and the West’s Ethical Responsibility

The rise of lethal autonomous weapons systems (LAWS) introduces an entirely new set of challenges. These systems, capable of selecting and engaging targets without human intervention, are already a controversial part of military strategies worldwide. With China and Russia both making significant advances, the West must maintain leadership in AI development—but also in ethical oversight.

The big question is accountability. What happens when an AI-guided drone misidentifies a target, or worse, is manipulated by an adversary? The ethical implications are profound. Western nations, which historically have taken the lead in promoting the laws of war, now face a critical task: ensuring that AI systems are used responsibly, with human oversight at every step.

History has taught us that new technology can be a powerful force for good when guided by the right principles. AI, if developed ethically, could lead to fewer casualties, more precision in targeting, and enhanced protection of human rights. But we must act now to create international norms and regulations before these technologies spiral out of control.

Preventing Escalation and Maintaining Stability

AI-driven warfare doesn’t just speed up response times—it could lower the threshold for conflict. Machines lack the nuanced understanding of political strategy that humans possess. On the other hand, AI doesn’t hate, rage, fear, get tired, or commit atrocities—unless it’s programmed to do so. Nearly every war in history has stemmed from human error, misinterpretation, or an emotional response—often for irrational and self-destructive reasons. Surely, AI could help prevent these costly and catastrophic decisions?
If an AI system mistakenly identifies an incoming missile attack, it could trigger a retaliatory strike before a human commander can intervene. With China and Russia heavily investing in AI warfare, Western governments must ensure they remain at the forefront of not only technology but also strategic control.

Western militaries have a responsibility to lead with transparency and foresight, avoiding the risks of escalation that unchecked AI could bring. The nuclear threat posed by AI miscalculations, as the Nuclear Threat Initiative points out, is one of the gravest dangers we face.

The Role of Small Actors: Terrorists and Rogue States

It’s not just the great powers we need to worry about. Terrorist groups and rogue states could exploit AI for nefarious purposes. Whether through cyber-attacks, autonomous weapons, or other innovative uses, AI could become a powerful tool for bad actors. Western countries need to develop robust defensive systems that can identify and neutralize these threats before they materialize.

AI’s application in cybersecurity is a promising area where the West can take the lead. AI can predict and respond to cyber-attacks in real time, a critical capability given the increasing prevalence of cyber warfare.

The Balance of Power and Ethics

The rapid pace of AI development will require Western nations to strike a balance between military necessity and ethical responsibility. International laws are still catching up to the advancements in AI. The question of who decides what is “good” in the context of AI warfare remains unanswered. However, Western powers must be the ones to shape this narrative, ensuring that AI is used to advance peace and stability, not conflict and chaos.

Benefits of AI in International Security and Defence

Enhanced Operational Efficiency: AI improves decision-making capabilities by rapidly analyzing vast amounts of data, which aids in strategic planning, threat detection, and battlefield management. For instance, AI can process satellite images and surveillance data much faster than humans, offering real-time insights into enemy movements or supply chain disruptions. This allows for more informed and quicker military responses, enhancing both tactical and strategic outcomes. AI’s ability to manage logistics is also crucial, enabling predictive maintenance of military equipment and optimizing supply chains.
Human-Machine Teaming (HMT): AI has introduced the concept of HMT, where humans and machines collaborate closely, improving military capabilities without fully replacing human decision-making. This collaboration enhances situational awareness, extends operational reach, and reduces the workload on human operators. For example, AI can take on routine or high-risk tasks, such as operating autonomous drones for reconnaissance, and freeing up human personnel for more complex and high-value operations.
Precision and Accuracy: AI enhances precision in targeting and resource allocation. Automated systems can guide weaponry more accurately, reducing collateral damage and improving mission outcomes. Moreover, AI systems help optimize logistics, ensuring supplies and reinforcements are delivered where they are most needed, reducing waste and delays.
Cybersecurity: AI can bolster defence systems against cyber threats by identifying vulnerabilities and mitigating risks in real time. It can predict and respond to cyber-attacks before they happen, a crucial capability in an era where cyber warfare plays an increasingly significant role.

Risks of AI in Defence and Warfare

Loss of Human Control: A major concern is the potential loss of human oversight as AI becomes more integrated into military decision-making processes. In fast-paced conflict scenarios, AI could potentially make decisions too quickly for human intervention, leading to unintended escalations. This concept of ‘hyper war’ suggests that the speed at which AI can operate might outpace human capacity to control military engagements, which could destabilize international security. To prevent this risk from becoming a reality, strict regulatory frameworks and fail-safe mechanisms should be developed to ensure human intervention remains a central part of any AI-driven decision-making process.
Autonomous Weapons and Escalation Risks: Autonomous systems, such as lethal autonomous weapons (LAWS), introduce ethical and strategic risks. Without proper human oversight, these systems could make fatal errors, such as misidentifying targets or reacting aggressively in situations where restraint is necessary. There are also concerns about the possibility of adversaries hacking or manipulating AI systems, leading to catastrophic outcomes. A responsible approach is to build security measures that are proportional to the risks.
Arms Race and Global Instability: The rapid advancement of AI in military applications has sparked fears of an AI arms race. Countries like the U.S., China, and Russia are heavily investing in AI technologies to gain military superiority, potentially destabilizing global security. For instance, China’s ‘intelligentized’ warfare strategy integrates AI into both civilian and military sectors, while Russia focuses on developing autonomous robotic systems. This competition heightens the risk of accidents, miscalculations, and unintended escalations. However, as the space race demonstrated, such intense competition can also drive technological innovations that benefit civil society.
Ethical and Legal Challenges: The deployment of AI in warfare raises significant ethical and legal questions. AI systems lack the moral reasoning that humans bring to combat decisions, which complicates accountability issues when things go wrong. International laws are currently lagging the technological advancements in AI, leading to concerns about the unchecked use of AI in military contexts. On the other hand, AI does not possess emotions like hate, rage, fear, exhaustion, or malice. Any harmful or destructive behaviors must be programmed or taught to it.